Central Asia

Increasing evidence shows that shifts in Central Asia’s climate are already occurring at an accelerating rate, and the region’s aridity is expected to increase, with consequences for agricultural production. While this warming trend applies to all areas and seasons, regional and seasonal trends vary. Lowland areas have seen a greater warming trend than mid-altitude and upland regions. The average annual temperature in Tajikistan, where mountains cover 93 percent of the land area, has increased by 0.3°C–1.2°C since the 1950s. In contrast, in Turkmenistan, where 80 percent of the land area is flat desert, the average annual temperature increased by 1.1°C–2.4°C during the same period. In Uzbekistan, the average minimum temperature rose by 2.0°C and average maximum temperatures by 1.6°C between 1950 and 2013. The warming was steepest in spring (0.39°C per decade) and more modest in winter (0.13°C per decade). In contrast, Kazakhstan has seen the sharpest rise in winter temperatures (0.35°C per decade), with less warming in summer months (0.18°C per decade). Unlike the clear warming trends, precipitation changes have shown no clear trend, with significant variations observed across the region.